Tech Portfolio Overview - LS - NVDA concern? - 2024/12/26

Portfolio Overview - Low Net Portfolio

12/26

On the long side, there has been concern on NVDA GPU due to ASIC, especially Trainium. Trainium 2 Project Rainier is a bold move that wants to have 400K servers (=2.5mn Trainium chips) at same space over at least 3yrs, with some proprietary technology like Neuronlink to be implemented - making it also a high-barrier project. Hence we take a neutral view on who will win out. We see training to be dominated by NVDA GPU while inferencing can be oligopolized by NVDA GPU as well as ASIC.

On the Short side, recently there are more short squeezes toward year-end with hedge funds taking profit, such as GlobalFoundries, Soitec. Also it is triggered by Biden's movement to initiate 301 investigation toward China mature node. However, we see mature node oversupply already a structural issue and doesn't think this will move the needle. More discussion please see our article dated 2025 Jan 1st.

On AUM of $300M, cash level 10.7%, current profit is $9.8M.

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